Welcome back to, TIME's new twice-weekly newsletter about AI. If you're reading this in your browser, why not subscribe to have the next one delivered straight to your inbox? Late last year, an AI researcher opened his laptop and showed me something jaw-dropping. Lucas Hansen, co-founder of nonprofit CivAI, was showing me an app he built that coaxed popular AI models into giving what appeared to be detailed step-by-step instructions for creating poliovirus and anthrax. Any safeguards that these models had were stripped away.

What Happens When Your Favorite Chatbot Dies? Pillay is an editorial fellow at TIME. Sarah Friar speaks during the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore on Nov. 18, 2021. Sarah Friar speaks during the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore on Nov. 18, 2021. Pillay is an editorial fellow at TIME.

Crucially, the surveyors then asked another question: how much would that risk increase if AI tools could match the performance of a team of experts on a difficult virology troubleshooting test? If AI could do that, the average expert said, then the annual risk would jump to 1.5%--a fivefold increase. What the forecasters didn't know was that Donoughe, a research scientist at the pandemic prevention nonprofit SecureBio, was testing AI systems for that very capability. In April, Donoughe's team revealed the results of those tests: today's top AI systems can outperform PhD-level virologists at a difficult troubleshooting test. In other words, AI can now do the very thing that forecasters warned would increase the risk of a human-caused pandemic fivefold.